tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32393732024-03-13T21:07:14.279-06:00¤R.A. 14:15:39.7, Dec. +19°10'57"Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comBlogger1887125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-8419744477093684592007-06-19T15:16:00.000-06:002007-06-19T15:18:06.790-06:00ISS and STS-117 Pass Tonight Over KC<p>Thanks to Scott Kranz of the <a href="http://www.askc.org/">ASKC</a> for posting this info on the Yahoo! group ...</p><br /><dir><p>For tonight (Tuesday, June 19):<br /><br />STS-117<br />rise in the NNW at 21:30:54<br />highest in the NNE at 21:33:06 at 20 degrees alt<br />set in the ENE at 21:35:18<br />ISS<br />rise in the NNW at 21:31:10<br />highest in the NNE at 21:33:23 at 20 degrees alt<br />set in the ENE at 21:35:36<br /><br />STS-117<br />rise in the WNW at 23:05:27<br />highest in the W at 23:07:22 at 31 degrees alt<br />set in the W at 23:07:22<br />ISSrise in the WNW at 23:05:45<br />highest in the W at 23:07:39 at 31 degrees alt<br />set in the W at 23:07:39</p></dir><br /><p>Go get 'em!</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-70431168779707468732007-06-03T00:01:00.000-06:002007-06-03T00:02:40.218-06:00Another Thing I Didn't Know Existed (A Continuing Series)<p>(Previous member of series <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2004_12_01_archive.html#110429645345936614">here</a>.)<br /><br />Wingsuit flying/base jumping -- looks like some kind of <a href="http://epic.weather.com/epicPlayer.html?clip=5292&collection=epic1&nav=141&from=epic">human flying squirrel</a>.<br /><br />This sort of thing, like ice golf, would be much easier on Titan.</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-60196772204818264162007-06-02T08:23:00.000-06:002007-06-02T08:25:15.963-06:00Big Sunspot Coming Around<p>Graze on over to the <a href="http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/512/">SOHO MDI Continuum Latest Image</a> page, then break out your (properly-filtered) equipment for a look. After a couple of very quiet years, the Sun will actually be something other than a blank disk for a while. (Hat tip to David Young of the <a href="http://www.askc.org/">ASKC</a>, who notes that our <a href="http://www.coronadofilters.com/products_pst.html">PST</a> is "just sitting here in storage" -- members can check it out for 2 weeks at a time. Another reason for locals to join.)</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-49436771951053871512007-05-29T16:13:00.000-06:002008-11-13T00:15:28.377-06:00Any Old Blogger Can Donate Blood<p><dir><p>UPDATE: <a href="http://instapundit.com/archives2/005729.php">Yikes</a>! OK, the usual instructions are -- poke around a little while you're here; I particularly encourage reading the posts listed under "Important Stuff" in the left sidebar. Feedback is welcomed via the link above; first-time e-mailers will have to batter their way through Spam Arrest.</p></dir></p><p>Like, you know, <a href="http://instapundit.com/archives2/005682.php">this guy</a>. But I'm not just any old blogger; on <em>Arcturus</em>, you <em>get to see the needle going in:</em></p><br /><div align="center"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlymL69KYyI/AAAAAAAAAFM/1r0zsY44beQ/s1600-h/2342601146_ORIG.jpeg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5070110004246897442" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlymL69KYyI/AAAAAAAAAFM/1r0zsY44beQ/s320/2342601146_ORIG.jpeg" border="0" /></a> just a little pinprick<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlymEq9KYxI/AAAAAAAAAFE/NKjf4dNbiZE/s1600-h/2342601156_ORIG.jpeg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5070109879692845842" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlymEq9KYxI/AAAAAAAAAFE/NKjf4dNbiZE/s320/2342601156_ORIG.jpeg" border="0" /></a> there is no pain, you are receding ...<br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/Rlyl9q9KYwI/AAAAAAAAAE8/TnXN_1_RyLM/s1600-h/2342601164_ORIG.jpeg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5070109759433761538" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/Rlyl9q9KYwI/AAAAAAAAAE8/TnXN_1_RyLM/s320/2342601164_ORIG.jpeg" border="0" /></a> the finished product, four minutes later<br /><div></div><br /><div align="center"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/Rlyl0a9KYvI/AAAAAAAAAE0/2YTisM7QeIc/s1600-h/2342601172_ORIG.jpeg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5070109600519971570" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/Rlyl0a9KYvI/AAAAAAAAAE0/2YTisM7QeIc/s320/2342601172_ORIG.jpeg" border="0" /></a> the rewards: colorful bandage, 10% cafeteria discount, pen, Sunny D, Oreos<br /><div></div><div align="left"><p>For more information, locals should graze on over to the <a href="http://www.savealifenow.org/">Community Blood Center</a> website; and also note <a href="http://www.heinleincentennial.com/blooddrive.html">this upcoming opportunity</a>.</p></div></div><br /></div>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-92124712800190091792007-05-27T08:01:00.000-06:002008-11-13T00:15:28.945-06:00How to Build a 22" Telescope<p>-- was the topic of the main presentation at last night's <a href="http://www.askc.org/meetings.htm">ASKC meeting</a>. Here's presenter Fiske Miles demonstrating the finished product (click on images for full-size [640 × 480] versions):</p><br /><div align="center"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlmP8a9KYuI/AAAAAAAAAEs/z9SBHo2O9xU/s1600-h/2330832669_ORIG.jpeg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5069241123772981986" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlmP8a9KYuI/AAAAAAAAAEs/z9SBHo2O9xU/s320/2330832669_ORIG.jpeg" border="0" /></a> putting the secondary assembly onto the trusses</div><br /><br /><div align="center"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlmP2q9KYtI/AAAAAAAAAEk/E4z9rXbZZ0U/s1600-h/2330832670_ORIG.jpeg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5069241024988734162" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlmP2q9KYtI/AAAAAAAAAEk/E4z9rXbZZ0U/s320/2330832670_ORIG.jpeg" border="0" /></a> adding the finderscope<br /><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlmPxq9KYsI/AAAAAAAAAEc/XmLTSiK624A/s1600-h/2330832673_ORIG.jpeg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5069240939089388226" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlmPxq9KYsI/AAAAAAAAAEc/XmLTSiK624A/s320/2330832673_ORIG.jpeg" border="0" /></a>... and the shroud<br /><br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlmPsK9KYrI/AAAAAAAAAEU/LVAufKllM2o/s1600-h/2330832674_ORIG.jpeg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5069240844600107698" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlmPsK9KYrI/AAAAAAAAAEU/LVAufKllM2o/s320/2330832674_ORIG.jpeg" border="0" /></a>pointing out the battery box<br /><br /><div align="center"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlmPn69KYqI/AAAAAAAAAEM/VT-fG4oeqpk/s1600-h/2330832675_ORIG.jpeg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5069240771585663650" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RlmPn69KYqI/AAAAAAAAAEM/VT-fG4oeqpk/s320/2330832675_ORIG.jpeg" border="0" /></a>a glimpse of the mirror assembly (at bottom)<br /><br /><div align="left"><p>The materials weren't too expensive -- maybe $7000, of which $4500 was the mirror, which he bought ready to install -- but the tools were something else: a full wood shop of goodies on the order of $20k. Graze on over to <a href="http://www.fiskemiles.com/">FiskeMiles.com</a> for the complete presentation.<br /></p></div><div align="left"><span style="font-family:courier new;font-size:85%;">Now let's have some fun. Turning to page 45 of the </span><a href="http://www.store.rasc.ca/Merchant2/merchant.mvc?Screen=CTGY&Store_Code=RASC&Category_Code=INTPUBS"><span style="font-family:courier new;font-size:85%;">Observer's Handbook 2007</span></a><span style="font-family:courier new;font-size:85%;"> and exercising some of the formulas found there, we have (with <em>D</em> = 560 mm): </span><p></p></div><ul><li><div align="left"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><em>Limiting Visual Magnitude</em> <em>m</em> ≈ 2.7 + 5 log <em>D</em> = +16.4</span></span></div></li><li><div align="left"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><em>Smallest Resolvable Angle</em> α ≈ 116/<em>D</em> = 0.21"</span></span></div></li><li><div align="left"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><em>Useful Magnification Range</em> ≈ 0.2<em>D</em> to 2<em>D</em> = 110x to 1,100x</span></span></div></li></ul><div align="left"><p>These are somewhat idealized values, given the reality of atmospheric conditions even at <a href="http://www.askc.org/darkskysite.htm">good sites</a> (or <a href="http://cleardarksky.com/lp/McDonaldObTXlp.html?Mn=apochromatic">great ones</a>).</p></div><div align="left"><p>Oh, yeah: shortly before the meeting, your humble blogger got arm-twisted into running for a seat on the ASKC board. Elections are at the next meeting, Sat 23 Jun. I'd like to buy about a million dollars' worth of TV ads, so feel free to contact me via the link at the top of the page and send bundles of unmarked twenty-dollar bills. My platform:</p></div><ul><li><div align="left"><span style="font-family:courier new;font-size:85%;">clouds/rain in daytime only and clear high-pressure domes of air overhead every night</span></div></li><li><div align="left"><span style="font-family:courier new;font-size:85%;">paint near side of Moon flat black so full Moon won't interfere with observation</span></div></li><li><div align="left"><span style="font-family:courier new;font-size:85%;">install master dimmer switch for all outside lighting in KC metro area</span></div></li><li><div align="left"><span style="font-family:courier new;font-size:85%;">a giant Dobsonian in every garage, a comet within 0.05 AU every calendar quarter, and a supernova within 1,000 light-years every year</span></div></li><li><div align="left"><span style="font-family:courier new;font-size:85%;">tunnels to Arizona and Chile for quick weekend getaways to Kitt Peak and Cerro Tololo</span></div></li></ul><div align="left"><p>Hey, those are at least as realistic as most campaign promises ...</p></div></div></div>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-15061119071792875932007-05-05T10:08:00.000-06:002007-05-07T11:16:28.690-06:00"Meteorite Capital" Hit by Tornado<p><a href="http://www.city-data.com/city/Greensburg-Kansas.html">Greensburg, KS</a>, previously mentioned on <em>Arcturus</em> in <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2004_06_01_archive.html#108620303159927988">Road Trip Report</a>, <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2005_11_01_archive.html#113296541796611354">Stained Glass from the Sky</a>, and <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2006_05_01_archive.html#114756220245175374">When the Stars Fall on Kansas</a>, has been heavily damaged by a tornado.</p><p><dir><p>UPDATE: Greensburg is now being described as "<a href="http://www.myfoxkc.com/myfox/pages/Home/Detail?contentId=3119687&version=30&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=1.1.1">destroyed</a>," and FOX 4 Meteorologist Joe Lauria in KC is reporting that the <a href="http://www.bigwell.org/meteor.html">1000-pound meteorite formerly on display in Greensburg</a>, the world's largest <a href="http://www.daviddarling.info/encyclopedia/P/pallasite.html">Pallasite</a>, is missing.</p><p>Relief information <a href="http://www.myfoxkc.com/myfox/pages/Home/Detail?contentId=3121408&version=2&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=1.1.1">here</a>.</p><p>2ND UPDATE: <a href="http://www.kansas.com/static/slides/050507tornadoaerials/">They're not kidding</a>. And see photos 11 and 12 for what's left of the facility that housed the meteorite.</p><p>3RD UPDATE: Roxana Hegeman of the AP reports that the meteorite has turned up.<br /></p><p>"Amid the rubble, one of the town's most locally famous features was recovered Monday. A museum volunteer searching the site of the town's Big Well museum found a missing 1,000-pound meteorite, one of the largest of its kind. The meteorite, a type called a pallasite, is insured for $1 million."</p></dir><p></p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-10112885309972844482007-05-03T20:46:00.000-06:002007-05-03T20:47:59.548-06:00Genes and Culture<p>-- is the subject of my <a href="http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/004946.html">latest offering over on <em>Chicago Boyz</em></a>. Enjoy!</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-1422423562093291102007-04-30T19:51:00.000-06:002007-04-30T19:55:22.670-06:00Of Gliese 581 C, Politics, and Life<p>The latest exoplanet being <a href="http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/070424_hab_exoplanet.html">touted as "Earthlike"</a> is yet another hot Jupiter - though "hot Neptune" might be a better phrase - that has spiraled close enough to its star to have a "surface" temperature in the range that could support liquid water. But Gliese 581 C is dramatically un-Earthlike.<br /><br />It has five times Earth's mass; it is undoubtedly tidally locked, such that one side always faces its star; and <a href="http://www.solstation.com/stars/gl581.htm">that star</a> is only 1.3% as luminous as the Sun, is substantially less enriched in "metals" (in astrophysicists' parlance, any element heavier than helium), is younger than the Sun, and is variable - thus the designation HO Librae.<br /><br />What we have here is a planet quite unlike any in the Solar System, orbiting a star equally unlike the Sun, being promoted as a steppingstone to the discovery of extraterrestrial (actually extrasolar) life, in the service of securing funding for, among other things, the <a href="http://planetquest.jpl.nasa.gov/TPF/tpf_index.cfm">Terrestrial Planet Finder</a>. There's nothing wrong with building something like the TPF, though to my mind the funding mechanism is subject to drastic improvement. But the most astonishing discoveries are being forced into a very limited range of narratives to further a limited range of research.<br /><br />Because what Gliese 581 C lacks is a history remotely resembling Earth's. To quote <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=k0vCHGD5Y00C&dq=Coming+of+Age+in+the+Milky+Way&pg=PP1">Timothy Ferris</a> quoting American physicist Thomas Gold (page 338 in the paperback edition), things are as they are because they were as they were. Earth swarms with life, including life recently capable of investigating other solar systems, because it has maintained - with considerable assistance from Jupiter, the Moon, tectonic plate movement, and <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2003_11_01_archive.html#106816859629342600">other influences</a> - a very rough homeostasis for billions of years, punctuated with just enough change, including extinction events of sufficient (but not oversufficient) severity, to drive the development of immense biological variety.<br /><br />Gliese 581 C has none of this - and equally important, and entirely lost in the employment of this discovery in the "are we alone?" narrative, is that it has its own history, one certainly as astonishing as our own, irrespective of whether it has led to intelligent aliens, or even bacteria.<br /><br />The most wondrous environments in our Solar System are those least like the planet we live on. It is past time to extend that appreciation to extrasolar planets, and refrain from immediately pigeonholing them as "Earthlike," and therefore worthy of our attention, or "not Earthlike," and therefore to be ignored.<br /><br />(Readers wishing to find Gliese 581/HO Librae should read the SolStation.com page linked above, then <a href="http://www.hawastsoc.org/deepsky/lib/index.html">graze over here</a>; it's about magnitude +8.4, so it should be a binocular object.)</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-39000386358215711682007-04-19T06:16:00.001-06:002007-04-19T06:25:27.701-06:00DSS Video<p>The <a href="http://www.askc.org/darkskysite.htm">Dark-Sky Site</a>, venue for the upcoming <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2007_03_01_archive.html#4753046881536700926">Heart of America Star Party</a>, is seen from an unusual viewpoint in <a href="http://www.foxstar-mo.com/DSSPlane1.wmv">this 1-minute, 44-second video</a> (warning: 4.4 MB) taken, somehow, by <a href="http://www.askc.org/">ASKC</a>er Dave Fox, who notes "you might want to turn down your speakers for this (it's loud)" and insists that "no planes or anything at the DSS was hurt in the filming of this movie." Play spot-the-<a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2006_12_01_archive.html#5903556641822951227">facility</a>, and enjoy!</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-20226116348456569772007-04-19T06:16:00.000-06:002007-04-21T12:35:17.306-06:00Fourteen Years Ago Today<p>-- was an event <a href="http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1135">whose anniversary we must never forget</a>.<br /><dir><p>UPDATE: <a href="http://www.cafepress.com/buy/equation/-/pv_design_details/pg_5/id_16763698/opt_/fpt_/c_360/">Heh</a>.</p></dir></p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-5483536256879569572007-04-16T20:49:00.000-06:002008-11-13T00:15:29.120-06:00<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RiQ17H4g4JI/AAAAAAAAAD0/k2LQMsPpszU/s1600-h/virginia_tech_flag_half_mast.png"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5054223971661176978" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RiQ17H4g4JI/AAAAAAAAAD0/k2LQMsPpszU/s320/virginia_tech_flag_half_mast.png" border="0" /></a>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-11410522852995345302007-04-13T11:26:00.000-06:002007-04-13T11:27:43.384-06:00Carnival of Space<p>Graze on over to <a href="http://whyhomeschool.blogspot.com/2007/04/announcing-carnival-of-space.html">Announcing the Carnival of Space</a> for, er, the announcement of the Carnival of Space.</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-56393855912095427482007-04-11T06:52:00.000-06:002007-04-11T12:23:27.098-06:00Exoplanetary Water<p></p><span style="font-family:courier new;font-size:85%;"><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070411/sc_nm/planet_water_dc">Signs of water seen on planet outside solar system</a> was the lead news headline on Yahoo! this morning. Like most exoplanets, <a href="http://www.extrasolar.net/planettour.asp?PlanetID=106">HD 209458b</a> is a "hot Jupiter," making it entirely unsuitable for life, which inconvenient fact doesn't keep the lede from calling this development "a tantalizing find for scientists eager to know whether life exists beyond Earth." Actually, it would have been much bigger news if it <em>didn't</em> have H<sub>2</sub>O in its atmosphere, but mentioning that would really screw up the we're-about-to-find-alien-life narrative.<br /><br />Roger Highfield's slightly breathless <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/02/21/nalien221.xml">Analysis: The Holy Grail of astronomy</a>, nonetheless usefully concludes: "What astronomers now need is a Goldilocks planet that passes behind its parent star."<br /><br />How likely is this? Assuming the planes of exoplanetary orbits to be oriented randomly with respect to the Solar System, we can get a rough idea by dividing the size of the Sun (since we're looking for planets around Sunlike stars) by the radius of Earth's orbit (since we're looking for planets that are at least Earthlike enough to be at a similar distance).<br /><br />That would be 1.5 × 10<sup>8</sup> km / 1.4 × 10<sup>6</sup> km, which suggests that for every 110 Goldilocks planets out there, we will be able to observe one by the transit method. As of now, <a href="http://www.extrasolar.net/starlisttour.asp?starcatid=normal&order=temperature&ShowUncertain=0">this list</a> has five planets in the habitable zone that are not in unduly eccentric orbits. All are Jovian. We are some years away from the first reliable observation of a terrestrial planet -- in the sense of being even as much like Earth as is Venus or Mars -- transiting its star's disk.<br /><br />(For comparison, a planet the size of Jupiter orbiting a star the size of the Sun at 0.05 AU would transit, as seen from our vantage point, in nearly one-fifth of cases, and would cause the star's light output to vary by a full 1% every four days. For this and other reasons, hot Jupiters are much easier to find than even vaguely Earthlike planets.)<br /><br />As with many other endeavors involving leading-edge technology combined with long project timelines, the question arises whether efforts like the <a href="http://planetquest.jpl.nasa.gov/TPF/tpf_index.cfm">Terrestrial Planet Finder</a>, which is funded but has no target date for launch, will be outstripped by nanotechnology in another decade or two.<br /><br />If you want to observe HD 209458, also known as V376 Pegasi, start <a href="http://www.extrasolar.net/startour.asp?StarCatId=&StarID=73">here</a>. It will be a binocular object, located west of the Square of Pegasus, and is best seen in the (Northern Hemisphere) late summer or early autumn.</span> <p></p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-2494080590024610102007-04-08T17:35:00.000-06:002007-04-09T10:31:35.200-06:00Future ≠ Utopia (A Continuing Series)<p>Read Steven A. Shaw's <em>NYTimes</em> op-ed, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/16/opinion/16shaw.html?ex=1176177600&en=fafe596c80227ccd&ei=5070">Take a Rat to Dinner</a>, for insightful commentary on actual <em>vs</em> perceived risk in food safety. His final sentence ends with "... officials should be prioritizing and educating, rather than making decisions based on which YouTube videos upset people the most." I have deliberately elided it thus by way of pointing out that there's an idea with a few thousand other applications besides inspections of fast-food joints.<br /><br />As noted in my <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2002_04_01_archive.html#85011105">much earlier installment</a> on this topic, torrents of horrific images will be viewed unedited in the near future by vast numbers of ordinary people, thanks to ubiquitous, commoditized bandwidth. Those images will produce, for perfectly good reasons of evolutionary psychology, visceral responses; and if visceral responses are transmuted directly into political intervention, we'll have a whole different layer of risk to manage. Not only officials, but opinion leaders -- and there will still be opinion leaders, even in the decentralized polity of the blogosphere -- would serve us well by growing up a little bit.<br /><br />Over to you, <a href="http://rhetorica.net/archives/006181.html">Dr Cline</a>.</p><p><dir><p>UPDATE: See also Jack Woodall's <a href="http://www.the-scientist.com/article/home/52966/">Disease Control by Decree</a> for a remarkable, and deadly, mixture of official over- and underreaction taking place in various countries, most but not all of which are, whaddaya know, dictatorships. This is supposedly going to be fixed by the <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/ihr/en/">WHO IHR</a>; we shall see.</p></dir></p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-78338152164440526052007-03-31T09:14:00.000-06:002007-03-31T09:16:03.085-06:00Why Rosie O'Donnell is Like Henry Morris III<p>-- is explained by me over at <em><a href="http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/004885.html">ChicagoBoyz</a></em>. Enjoy!</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-46985186018363772342007-03-29T18:27:00.000-06:002007-03-29T18:43:49.946-06:00Bag a Near-Earth Asteroid, and Speculate About Catastrophe<p><span style="font-family:courier new;font-size:85%;">Graze on over to <a href="http://www.rasc.ca/news/2006VV2.shtml">Close Approach of Asteroid 2006 VV2</a> for an overview, then read the aptly titled <a href="http://skytonight.com/observing/home/2006VV2.html">A Big Chunk of Rock Passes Near Earth</a> for details and charts. Go get it!<br /><br />Now for the usual fun. The RASC story notes that its likely diameter is within a factor of 2 of 2.2 km (specifically, the <a href="http://earn.dlr.de/nea/K06V02V.htm">Database of Near-Earth Asteroids</a> gives a size range of 1.4 - 3.1 km) and that at closest approach it will be 8.8 lunar distances, about 3.4 million km. Assuming a sphere of density 2.0 g cm<sup>-3</sup>, its mass would be 11 billion tonnes. Meanwhile, the <em>Sky&Tel</em> story notes: "At closest approach, 2006 VV<sub>2</sub> will traverse a degree of sky in a hour." This implies a velocity relative to Earth of 60,000 km hr<sup>-1</sup>.<br /><br />Plugging these values into <i>K</i><sub>E</sub> = ½<i>mv</i>² (after expressing them in kg and m sec<sup>-1</sup>) yields 1.6 × 10<sup>21</sup> J, and at 4.2 MJ per kg TNT equivalent, it works out to 380,000 megatons, which is roughly what we'd be in for if it hit us. Just about two orders of magnitude larger than all nuclear arsenals combined. Applying the equations referenced way back in <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2001_12_01_avoyagetoarcturus_archive.html#8295757">Thinking About the Unthinkable</a>, we find a 5-psi overpressure radius -- in general, the you're-dead radius -- of 310 km from the point of impact. That's only 1/1,700 of Earth's surface area, so it doesn't sound so bad; but 70% of Earth's surface is ocean, and the tsunami resulting from an oceanic impact would devastate coastal areas much further away -- my guess would be that every city bordering, say, the Pacific Ocean would have to be evacuated if the asteroid were found to be on a trajectory to impact anywhere in it.<br /><br />In this connection, 2006 VV<sub>2</sub> was discovered four and a half years ago, so it would seem that we would have plenty of time to react if such a dire situation ever came about. But for every asteroid its size, there are 200 that are one-tenth its diameter, and -- all other things being equal -- a hundred times as faint, implying far less warning time, possibly only a few days (see my incessantly self-promoted <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2002_03_01_avoyagetoarcturus_archive.html#75046274">A Modest Proposal for an Asteroid Warning System</a> and <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2002_04_01_avoyagetoarcturus_archive.html#75056016">Asteroid Detection, Again</a> for an overdose of background information).<br /><br />Don't forget to graze around in <em><a href="http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2006VV2;main">NEODys</a></em> while you're at it.</span></p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-82448477274949120592007-03-25T13:06:00.000-06:002008-11-13T00:15:29.861-06:00Where I Was, and What I Was Doing<p align="center"><p>I was at the <a href="http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&amp;amp;amp;q=30.550%C2%B0N,+104.146%C2%B0W&layer=&ie=UTF8&t=h&om=1&z=11&ll=30.549844,-104.146271&spn=0.529831,1.083527">secure but not undisclosed location</a> from 9-19 March, helping adjacent property owners put in a new water system. Here's some pix (click on images for original size):</p><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RgbIq7e0YeI/AAAAAAAAADY/0G7NM9gLfds/s1600-h/Future+Site+of+Manifold+Observatory+1a.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5045941072362234338" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RgbIq7e0YeI/AAAAAAAAADY/0G7NM9gLfds/s320/Future+Site+of+Manifold+Observatory+1a.JPG" border="0" /><p align="center"></a>Future site of Manifold Observatory. </p><p></p><br /><div><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5045941510448898546" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RgbJEbe0YfI/AAAAAAAAADg/pcEuYTATdZA/s320/McDonald+Observatory+at+Sunset+1.JPG" border="0" /></div><br /><p align="center">McDonald Observatory at sunset, from my property.</p><p></p><p align="center"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5045941978600333826" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RgbJfre0YgI/AAAAAAAAADo/uq7MmQDvyfg/s320/Moon+from+Crow%27s+Nest.JPG" border="0" /><br />You can never have too many Moon pictures (note to purists inclined to check this against the selenographic colongitude: timestamp is CST [UT-6], not CDT [UT-5]).</p><p><p>On the way back, I took a picture at DIA, which I've <a href="http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/004875.html">posted over on <em>ChicagoBoyz</em></a>.</p><p></p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-22424474576449968192007-03-24T08:40:00.001-06:002008-11-13T00:15:29.965-06:00Lunar Eclipse Followup<p>(That would be <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2007_03_01_archive.html#4599733537492660209">this lunar eclipse</a>.) Various people, including Phil Bowermaster and Rand Simberg, have linked to <a href="http://www.adventix.net/blog/2007/03/18/unbelievable-graphic-art-pictures-by-rob-gonzales/">this amazing presentation of artwork by Rob Gonsalves</a>, who seems to be the MC Escher of our time. I found this piece particularly appropriate:</p><br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RgVR3re0YdI/AAAAAAAAADQ/SdWDMKwyQ5o/s1600-h/rob_gonsalves_17.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5045528974545150418" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/RgVR3re0YdI/AAAAAAAAADQ/SdWDMKwyQ5o/s320/rob_gonsalves_17.jpg" border="0" /></a> <p>The books from which these images are taken are <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Imagine-Day-Byron-Preiss-Book/dp/0689852193">Imagine a Day</a> and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Imagine-Night-Rob-Gonsalves/dp/0689852185">Imagine a Night</a>.</p><br /><div></div>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-8505770534673559012007-03-24T08:40:00.000-06:002007-03-24T08:42:12.798-06:00Space Access '07<p>Henry Cate III alerted me that this event is being blogged by several people who are smarter than I am and have more bandwidth besides, so graze on over to:</p><br /><ul><span style="font-family:courier new;font-size:85%;"><li><a href="http://www.transterrestrial.com/">Transterrestrial Musings</a></li><br /><li><a href="http://spacepolitics.com/">Space Politics</a></li><br /><li><a href="http://www.hobbyspace.com/nucleus/index.php">RLV and Space Transport News</a></li><br /><li>and Henry's own <a href="http://whyhomeschool.blogspot.com/2007/03/space-access-07-introduction.html">Why Homeschool</a></li></span></ul><br /><p>RTWT.</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-11801464340893150442007-03-23T11:12:00.000-06:002007-03-23T11:13:35.668-06:00When More Is Not Enough<p>-- you need a prescription for <a href="http://havidol.com/">Havidol</a>. (Via <a href="http://www.the-scientist.com/news/home/52961/">The Scientist</a>.)</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-47530468815367009262007-03-06T18:51:00.000-06:002007-03-06T18:53:20.041-06:00Heart of America Star Party, Tue 12 - Sun 17 Jun<p>I still wish they called it the Marais des Cygnes Star Party, but anyway, <a href="http://www.hoasp.org/">here's the website</a>.<br /><br />You can read my report from last year's event <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2006_06_01_archive.html#115137192809644934">here</a>; pictures <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2006_06_01_archive.html#115145612744456211">here</a>.</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-45997335374926602092007-03-03T19:57:00.000-06:002008-11-13T00:15:30.714-06:00Bit Moon Rising<p>Click on images for full-size (2288 × 1712) versions. All taken with a hand-held Nikon Coolpix 4800 through a 127mm Maksutov reflector with focal length 1540mm and a 32mm eyepiece yielding 48x.</p><br /><div align="center"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/ReoqeAJAaLI/AAAAAAAAAC0/0XwTMN9TaG8/s1600-h/DSCN1068.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5037885828089538738" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/ReoqeAJAaLI/AAAAAAAAAC0/0XwTMN9TaG8/s320/DSCN1068.JPG" border="0" /></a> through the finderscope</div><div align="center"></div><div align="center"><br /></div><div align="center"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/ReoqSAJAaKI/AAAAAAAAACs/TlOW6Hh0c80/s1600-h/DSCN1076.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5037885621931108514" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/ReoqSAJAaKI/AAAAAAAAACs/TlOW6Hh0c80/s320/DSCN1076.JPG" border="0" /></a>in the trees<br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/ReoqIAJAaJI/AAAAAAAAACk/omoGeEOB2rs/s1600-h/DSCN1083.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5037885450132416658" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/ReoqIAJAaJI/AAAAAAAAACk/omoGeEOB2rs/s320/DSCN1083.JPG" border="0" /></a>umbral boundary passing just <s>west</s> east (oops) of Tycho and through Mare Serenitatis<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/Reop9gJAaII/AAAAAAAAACc/Qk_PDmEPI68/s1600-h/DSCN1093.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5037885269743790210" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/Reop9gJAaII/AAAAAAAAACc/Qk_PDmEPI68/s320/DSCN1093.JPG" border="0" /></a> now uncovering Mare Tranquillitatis ...<br /><br /><br /><div><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/ReoprQJAaHI/AAAAAAAAACU/kxWUnuQY2HY/s1600-h/DSCN1103.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5037884956211177586" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/ReoprQJAaHI/AAAAAAAAACU/kxWUnuQY2HY/s320/DSCN1103.JPG" border="0" /></a>... and Mare Crisium</div><br /></div>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-48617583658436952912007-03-03T08:13:00.001-06:002007-03-03T08:16:43.174-06:00Tonight's Lunar Eclipse<p>(Detailed info <a href="http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse/OH/OH2007.html#2007Mar03T">here</a>.)<br /><br />The good news for locals is that it's going to clear off. The bad news for locals is that the wind chill is going to be 19°F. Not quite sure how I'm going to view this one -- might set my 'scope up somewhere near my house.</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-24216922506192054642007-03-03T08:13:00.000-06:002007-03-03T08:14:19.439-06:00Reasons to Read "Homage to Catalonia"<p>I wouldn't ordinarily reference something on Townhall.com, but Paul Greenberg has a fine column headlined <a href="http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/PaulGreenberg/2007/03/02/in_defense_of_orwell?page=full&comments=true">In defense of Orwell</a>. RTWT.<br /><br />(You can read the entire book online <a href="http://www.george-orwell.org/Homage_to_Catalonia/index.html">here</a>.)</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3239373.post-51792343747198577402007-02-28T18:08:00.000-06:002008-11-13T00:15:30.901-06:00OK, This Is A Month Late<p>-- and I'm not going into competition with <a href="http://www.missouriskies.org/">Dan Bush</a>, but here's a terrific submission from occasional contributor Ric Locke (click on image for full-size version, 1024 × 768):</p><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/ReYZp98Y_qI/AAAAAAAAABI/ADdlcDbV26I/s1600-h/20070129+Jet+Trail+1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5036741442053668514" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vbgXV-wvhXg/ReYZp98Y_qI/AAAAAAAAABI/ADdlcDbV26I/s320/20070129+Jet+Trail+1.jpg" border="0" /></a> <p>Ric writes:</p><br /><dir><p>I've noticed that stargazers in general tend also to be interested in clouds and cloud formations. Perhaps it's only that on too many occasions that's what they have to look at instead of their intended object(s). :-)<br /><br />At any rate, when I took this picture I thought of you .... it was last Monday, 29th January, shortly before 0800 CST. The viewpoint is close to 33N 98W, looking almost due East. Ground temperature was almost exactly freezing, with nearly no wind; the glitter in the trees to the right is ice on the branches, accentuated by compression artifacts. I don't own an accurate barometer.<br /><br />From the visible path it would seem the aircraft left DFW airport, or at any rate the control area, at the southwest departure, performed a climbing right turn, then turned left at its assigned altitude, which happened to be precisely at the level of the thin high clouds (stratocumulus?). The disturbance of the air added enough energy to vaporize the ice crystals within the vortex cones of the plane.<br /><br />Atmospheric conditions were such that the path persisted through the morning until the cloud formations broke up completely. I know it was still visible, much wider and less distinct, at 1100 CST, although I didn't get any more pictures. There were several other such "inverse contrails" formed, none of the others as distinct as this one, and also a patch which I didn't figure out for a long time: the aircraft in question had climbed through the clouds to a higher altitude, leaving an oval hole instead of a long thin formation.<br /><br />We get contrails here very frequently, most often from aircraft going from Denver to Houston (aircraft headed for DFW or one of the other airports in that zone have descended before they get close to me). But I hadn't seen anything like this distinct an inverse contrail before.</p></dir><br /><p>Ric's location brought back fond memories of my old observing site, around 32°48' N, 98°39' W, on P33 a few miles south of <a href="http://www.tpwd.state.tx.us/spdest/findadest/parks/possum_kingdom/">Possum Kingdom State Park</a>.</p>Jay Manifoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13259809239539542120noreply@blogger.com